As Bihar approaches its pivotal Assembly elections in October-November 2025, a comprehensive 45-day mood survey by the Hyderabad-based People’s Pulse Research Organization and South First Media, conducted across all 38 districts, found a neck-to-neck contest between NDA and Maha Gathbandhan.
With the NDA leading by a mere 1 percent, the survey underscores a volatile electoral landscape where caste loyalties, ticket strategies, and alliance cohesion could tilt the scales. In the absence of a unifying narrative, Bihar’s voters grapple with persistent grievances and competing promises, setting the stage for a verdict that could redefine the state’s political destiny.
The survey projects the NDA—comprising Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP(RV)], and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM)—at 41-44 percent vote share, narrowly ahead of the Mahagathbandhan (MGB)—Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, Left parties, and Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP)—at 40-42.5 percent.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) commands 6-8 percent, with others at 7.5-9 percent, within a ±3 percent margin of error. This virtual deadlock mirrors the 2020 elections’ slim margins, amplifying the weight of micro-factors: candidate selection, Tejashwi Yadav’s cross-caste outreach, and JSP’s potential to siphon anti-incumbency votes.
Unlike previous elections—2005’s anti-Lalu wave, 2010’s “sushasan” mandate, 2015’s anti-BJP churn, or 2020’s job-driven surge—2025 lacks a cohesive narrative. Respondents prioritize local concerns—MLA performance, infrastructure deficits—over national flashpoints like SIT probes.
Caste remains the bedrock of voter choice, now tinged with communal undercurrents in regions like Mithila and Simanchal. Anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar’s NDA, fueled by price rises, unemployment, and migration, fragments between MGB and JSP, positioning the latter as a potential kingmaker rather than a victor.
Ticket allocation emerges as a pivotal battleground. Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), comprising 36 percent of voters, signal openness to the MGB if it broadens representation beyond its Muslim-Yadav (MY) core, echoing Akhilesh Yadav’s successful “PDA” (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) strategy in Uttar Pradesh’s 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
However, reducing MY tickets risks rebellion, given Tejaswi’s weaker grip compared to Akhilesh. For the NDA, internal discord—seat-sharing tensions with Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) or Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM—threatens to erode its slender lead, potentially gifting the MGB an edge.
Voter frustrations run deep, cutting across demographics. Youths decry joblessness as a relentless scourge, women lament inflation’s toll on household budgets, and families bemoan migration’s drain on Bihar’s vitality.
Both state and central governments face scrutiny, yet respondents admit caste affinities will shape their votes, tempering economic critiques. The NDA bears the brunt of anti-incumbency, with EBCs, as non-direct beneficiaries, showing tentative openness to the MGB, signaling a shift in traditional voting patterns.
NDA supporters invoke fears of a “Jungle Raj” return, tied to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s era, while MGB backers decry rising corruption, commissions, and violent crimes. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) grapples with perceptions of his age (74) and fatigue, though EBCs, Dalits, and women remain loyal.
The survey challenges narratives of youth disenchantment, portraying Nitish as a stabilizing force—flawed but unmatched—amid a lack of alternatives. Farmers, divided by caste, form no cohesive bloc, further fragmenting rural sentiment.
Women, half the electorate, tilt decisively toward the NDA, particularly through JIVIKA networks numbering millions. They praise Nitish’s empowerment measures—prohibition, enhanced widow pensions, stipends for para-government workers—cementing his “silent weapon” status. Youths, vocal on employment and education, concede caste’s pull, granting Nitish a balanced perception: neither hero nor villain, but a guarantor of relative progress.