As the T20 World Cup 2024 Super Eight stage draws to a close, Group 2 is poised on a knife-edge with two games remaining. The semi-final race has boiled down to a tense three-way tussle among England, West Indies, and South Africa, while the USA, though still in the mix, face an uphill battle needing colossal victories to stay in contention.
Here’s how the scenarios unfold based on the upcoming clashes: England vs USA and West Indies vs South Africa.
If England and West Indies Win:
An England and West Indies victory will see all three teams – England, West Indies, and South Africa – tied on four points each. Given West Indies’ recent dominant performance against USA, they are in a favorable position to secure a semi-final spot due to their superior net run rate (NRR). If West Indies triumph over South Africa, they will qualify regardless of the England-USA outcome.
England’s qualification, however, hinges on NRR. To surpass South Africa’s NRR, the aggregate margin of their win and South Africa’s loss must be at least 10 runs, based on a first-innings total of 160. For instance, if England wins by 10 runs, they will advance even if South Africa falls in a Super Over. Should the winning margin be less than 10 runs, South Africa will edge ahead on NRR and secure the second semi-final spot.
If USA and South Africa Win:
South Africa will comfortably top the table with six points, leaving England, West Indies, and USA stranded at two points each. In this scenario, England’s chances depend on minimising their losing margin. If England falls in a Super Over after chasing 160, West Indies will need to lose by at least 43 runs to fall below England on NRR. A larger margin of defeat for England give West Indies more room to maneuver, likely resulting in South Africa and West Indies claiming the semi-final berths. USA, burdened by a poor NRR, require herculean efforts: they must defeat England by at least 56 runs and hope West Indies succumb by 91 runs or more to keep their faint hopes alive.
If USA and West Indies Win:
A victory for USA and West Indies would mean South Africa and West Indies advance with four points each, leaving England and USA at two points apiece, effectively ending their semi-final ambitions.
If England and South Africa Win:
This straightforward scenario sees South Africa topping the group with six points and England clinching the second semi-final spot with four points, eliminating the West Indies and USA.