With anti-incumbency leading to the defeat of the BRS in the recent Assembly elections in Telangana, the YSRCP appears to be re-drawing its strategy to avoid a similar fate in Andhra Pradesh.
As most of the sitting MLAs of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) had to bite the dust, the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) is planning to drop the majority of the sitting MLAs for the elections due to be held in April-May next year.
A survey done by Jagan Mohan Reddy’s own team and IPAC after the Telangana Assembly elections reportedly revealed that many MLAs are facing anti-incumbency in their respective constituencies.
He is also said to be mulling to shift some sitting MLAs to neighbouring constituencies and field some in the Lok Sabha elections, which are to be held simultaneously.
The YSRCP began the process to promote alternate faces in various constituencies soon after the outcome in Telangana, where the BRS failed to score a hat-trick. However, this process has led to discontent and even a revolt in a few constituencies.
The first big reaction came from the YSRCP MLA of Mangalagiri, Alla Ramakrishna Reddy, who resigned from both the Assembly and the party.
Though he cited personal reasons for his decision, it was clear that he was unhappy over the appointment of Ganji Chiranjeevi as YSRCP in-charge for Mangalagiri constituency. He was hurt by the demands from a group within the party opposed to him not to give a party ticket to him in next year’s Assembly elections.
Ramakrishna Reddy had defeated Telugu Desam Party (TDP) general secretary Nara Lokesh in the 2019 elections from Mangalagiri, which covers Amaravati capital region.
The outcome in Telangana shows that having an overwhelming majority in the Assembly is no guarantee that the ruling party will retain power.
The BRS had a whopping 104 MLAs in the 119-member Telangana Assembly and it had fielded almost all of them in the recent elections. Its calculations that it will retain power even if its 40 sitting MLAs were defeated proved wrong as it could win only 39 seats.
The Congress party, which had just five seats in the previous Assembly, dramatically improved its performance to wrest power from the BRS. The KCR-led party failed to read the undercurrent of anti-incumbency faced by many sitting MLAs in their constituencies.
The BRS leadership was so confident of retaining power that it had refused to accept even the exit polls results.
In the 2019 Assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh, the YSRCP stormed to power with a landslide majority. It had bagged 151 seats in the 175-member Assembly. The TDP finished a distant second with just 23 seats.
Political analysts say the victory of the Congress in Telangana has given hope to the TDP that it can replicate it in Andhra Pradesh.
With the Jana Sena Party (JSP) already announcing an alliance with the TDP and the BJP too likely to join them, the anti-incumbency votes may not split, adding to the problems of the ruling party.
“The fear of defeat is haunting Jagan and that’s why he is dropping sitting MLAs. Even if he drops all the sitting MLAs, he is not going to win as people have decided to send him home,” said TDP supremo and former chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu.
Naidu, who has already declared that it will be his last election, has called the ensuing Assembly elections a battle between the five crore people of Andhra Pradesh and a dictator. “The future of Andhra Pradesh will largely depend on the outcome of these elections,” said the TDP chief at a news conference, which was his first after his release on bail in the AP State Skill Development Corporation case last month.
Making it clear that the coming elections are not meant for him to become the chief minister again nor for the TDP-Jana Sena to come to power, he said that they are aimed at saving the state and the future of the people.
Observing that power is not new for the TDP or the chief minister’s post is something new for him, Chandrababu clarified that the TDP is sailing with the Jana Sena only in the interest of the state.
He also admitted two YSRCP MLAs into the TDP on December 15. Terming the YSRCP as a sinking ship, he said that all the leaders are trying to escape from it.
Naidu claimed that Jagan does not meet his own party MLAs and does not give appointments to his sister and mother. He remarked that those who have self-respect never try to meet Jagan.