An exclusive Exit Poll conducted by CVoter on behalf of ABP News finds that the Congress is tantalisingly close to winning the Assembly elections in Telangana.
If the projections of the Exit Poll, conducted with a sample size of 9,631, hold good, it will be a spectacular comeback for the Congress, which had been humbled by regional party BRS in 2018, winning just 15 out of 119 seats, while the BRS had moped home with 88 seats.
According to the ABP-CVoter Exit Poll, the Congress is projected to win between 49 and 65 seats, while the BRS is projected to win between 38 and 54 seats.
The BJP comes a distant third, projected to win between 5 and 13 seats.
The Congress’ vote share is projected to go up dramatically, from 28.3 per cent in 2018 to 40.7 per cent this time. In contrast, the numbers for the BRS are expected to fall sharply from 46.9 per cent in 2018 to 38.8 per cent this time.
The BJP’s numbers too are projected to rise from 7 per cent in 2018 to a projected 16 per cent this time; but that will not be enough to make it a serious contender for power.
The Exit Poll data shows that while the AIMIM is holding on to its strongholds, the Left parties that were once very strong in the region have will be virtually wiped out this time in Telangana.
An analysis of anti-incumbency trends in the Eexit Poll data shows that it is advantage Congress. In the best case scenario for the BRS, where all the marginal seats go pro-incumbent, the BRS is projected to win between 54 and 66 seats.
In contrast, if all the marginal seats go anti-incumbent, the Congress is projected to win between 67 and 79 seats.
It does appear as if almost 10 years after it created Telangana during the UPA regime, the voters are finally rewarding the latter.