Hezbollah’s High-Stakes Move Amid Middle East Turmoil
After Iran’s supreme leader was assassinated, the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran. This has renewed fighting between Lebanon and Israel, with Hezbollah back in the spotlight. But Hezbollah is facing its biggest crisis ever, as everyone from regional powers to Lebanese citizens watches its every move.
A Brief History of the Conflict
Since a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel was agreed in late 2024, things were relatively quiet—but only on the surface. Israel often broke the ceasefire by bombing targets in Lebanon, killing people and taking more land. Meanwhile, Hezbollah and the Lebanese government argued over disarming Hezbollah, as required by the government’s plan.
The Recent Spark: Hezbollah Attacks Israel
Everything changed when Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel. Israel hit back hard, bombing Lebanon and killing at least 35 people. They also forced tens of thousands to leave their homes in southern Lebanon and called up over 100,000 reservists for a possible ground invasion. In response, Lebanon’s government strongly banned all Hezbollah military activities, calling them illegal and demanding Hezbollah give up its weapons.
Key Questions Everyone Is Asking
This sudden fighting raises big questions: How strong is Hezbollah’s military after past attacks? Was this attack a one-time show of support for Iran, or the start of a full war? Did Hezbollah act alone, or did Iran’s IRGC order it? Will Israel bomb more or send troops into Lebanon? And will Lebanon’s government push to disarm Hezbollah, risking more division in an already broken country?
Why Hezbollah Took the Risk
Hezbollah decided to attack because waiting was too dangerous. Israel kept hitting Lebanon, political pressure at home was growing, and Iran—Hezbollah’s main backer—might be too weak to help. Both Iran and Hezbollah feel they’re in a fight for survival after the attack on Iran and all the pressure they face.
Losing Support at Home
Hezbollah has lost popularity in Lebanon because its military is weaker and many Lebanese are tired of wars, destruction, and poverty. Even its long-time ally, Nabih Berri (leader of Amal and parliament speaker), seems to be turning away. Amal ministers supported the government’s ban on Hezbollah’s weapons, hurting their alliance.
The Bigger Picture: Regional Shifts
Hezbollah and Iran are part of the “Axis of Resistance,” which includes groups in Yemen and Iraq. This alliance is weakened because
